2025 May 07 2200 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 127 Issued at 2200Z on 07 May 2025

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 May, 09 May,
10 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 853 km/s at 07/0544Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 12994 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 May), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (09 May) and quiet to active levels on day
three (10 May).

III. Event probabilities 08 May-10 May
Class M 45/45/45
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 May 154
Predicted 08 May-10 May 155/160/155
90 Day Mean 07 May 167

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 May 015/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 May 010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 May-10 May 008/010-017/025-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 May-10 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/40/35
Minor Storm 05/30/15
Major-severe storm 01/10/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/05/10
Minor Storm 30/20/30
Major-severe storm 35/70/50