Update 6/15/12 – A beta-gamma-delta field in AR1504 has developed. This could store energy for strong solar flares. NOAA  estimates a 65% chance of M-flares and a 5% chance of X-flares during the next 24 hours.

Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate. An isolated M-class event is likely from Region 1504.

Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be quiet on 15-16 June. An increase to unsettled to active levels is expected early on day 3 (17 June) due to combined effects from both the 13 June and 14 June CMEs

6/14/12 – A combined blow to Earth’s magnetic is expected from a pair of CME events spawned from sunspot AR1504  on June 16th around 10:16 UT. Region 1504 (S16E01) produced a long duration M1/1n flare with maximum at 14/1435Z. This event was associated with a 1400 sfu Tenflare and a Type IV radio sweep.

 Click Image to see animation of CME wave

An associated CME was observed in STEREO imagery at 14/1424Z with an estimated plane-of-sky velocity between 900 and 1100 km/s. IB.

Video if AR1504 on June 14, 2012